气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05006-6
	Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
	Perry S.J.; McGregor S.; Sen Gupta A.; England M.H.; Maher N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	395
结束页码	412
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	As the dominant driver of interannual climate variability globally, any changes in the remote impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to climate change are of considerable importance. Here we assess whether climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) project robust changes in ENSO’s regional temperature and precipitation teleconnections in the late 21st century, comparing the historical simulations (between 1950 and 1999) and high-emission future simulations (between 2040 and 2089). In order to quantify the importance of internal variability in these projected changes, we examine an ensemble of coupled model simulations from the Max-Planck-Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE). Except for a few regions, the changes in ENSO’s temperature and precipitation teleconnections for most regions are not significant across the majority of models. Exceptions include consistent projected changes to temperature teleconnections over equatorial South America and East Africa, which are robust during La Niña events. Despite this, by assessing all regions together, a significant amplification of the temperature teleconnections is identified for La Niña events. Additionally, we find an overall projected weakening relative to the historical precipitation teleconnection when analysis is limited to regions that correctly reproduce the observed precipitation teleconnections. It remains unclear to what extent a change in regional ENSO teleconnections will be apparent, as it is clear that the changes in ENSO’s teleconnections are relatively small compared to the regional variability during the historical period. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	El Niño-Southern Oscillation; Future projections; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; La Nina; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; teleconnection; temperature profile; twenty first century; weather forecasting; East Africa; South America
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145758
作者单位	Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Perry S.J.,McGregor S.,Sen Gupta A.,et al. Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Perry S.J.,McGregor S.,Sen Gupta A.,England M.H.,&Maher N..(2020).Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Perry S.J.,et al."Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).