气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Niño events dynamics in the warming climate

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05036-0
	Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Niño events dynamics in the warming climate
	Carréric A.; Dewitte B.; Cai W.; Capotondi A.; Takahashi K.; Yeh S.-W.; Wang G.; Guémas V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	901
结束页码	918
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	While there is evidence that ENSO activity will increase in association with the increased vertical stratification due to global warming, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we investigate this issue using the simulations of the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) Project focusing on strong El Niño events of the Eastern Pacific (EP) that can be associated to flooding in Northern and Central Peru. It is shown that, in the warmer climate, the duration of strong EP El Niño events peaking in boreal winter is extended by two months, which results in significantly more events peaking in February–March–April (FMA), the season when the climatological Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is at its southernmost location. This larger persistence of strong EP events is interpreted as resulting from both a stronger recharge process and a more effective thermocline feedback in the eastern equatorial Pacific due to increased mean vertical stratification. A heat budget analysis reveals in particular that the reduction in seasonal upwelling rate is compensated by the increase in anomalous vertical temperature gradient within the surface layer, yielding an overall increase in the effectiveness of the thermocline feedback. In CESM-LE, the appearance of strong EP El Niño events peaking in FMA accounts for one-quarter of the increase in frequency of occurrence of ENSO-induced extreme precipitation events, while one-third results from weak-to-moderate El Niño events that triggers extreme precipitation events because of the warmer mean SST becoming closer to the convective threshold. In CESM-LE, both the increase in mean EP SST and the change in ENSO processes thus contribute to the increase in extreme precipitation events in the warmer climate. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CESM-LE; Climate change; Extreme El Niño event; Vertical stratification
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; computer simulation; convective system; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; flooding; global warming; heat budget; stratification; temperature gradient; thermocline; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (East); Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Peru
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145747
作者单位	LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Ecology and Sustainable Management of Oceanic Island (ESMOI), Coquimbo, Chile; Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú—SENAMHI, Lima, Peru; Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Hany...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carréric A.,Dewitte B.,Cai W.,et al. Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Niño events dynamics in the warming climate[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Carréric A..,Dewitte B..,Cai W..,Capotondi A..,Takahashi K..,...&Guémas V..(2020).Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Niño events dynamics in the warming climate.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Carréric A.,et al."Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Niño events dynamics in the warming climate".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).