气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05017-3
	The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example
	Hochman A.; Alpert P.; Kunin P.; Rostkier-Edelstein D.; Harpaz T.; Saaroni H.; Messori G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	561
结束页码	574
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The Mediterranean region is projected to be significantly affected by climate change through warming and drying. The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) is particularly vulnerable since the bulk of the precipitation in the region is associated with a specific circulation pattern, known as Cyprus Low (CL). Here, we study the influence of increased greenhouse gases on the average properties and dynamics of CLs, using a regional semi-objective synoptic classification. The classification is applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the present day (1986–2005) as well as to eight CMIP5 models for the present day and for the end of the century (2081–2100; RCP8.5). This is complemented by a dynamical systems analysis, which is used to investigate changes in the dynamics and intrinsic predictability of the CLs. Finally, a statistical downscaling algorithm, based on past analogues, is applied to eighteen rain stations over Israel, and is used to project precipitation changes associated with CLs. Significant changes in CL properties are found under climate change. The models project an increase in CL meridional pressure gradient (0.5–1.5 hPa/1000 km), which results primarily from a strong increase in the pressure over the southern part of the study region. Our results further point to a decrease in CL frequency (− 35%, as already noted in an earlier study) and persistence (− 8%). Furthermore, the daily precipitation associated with CL occurrences over Israel for 2081–2100 is projected to significantly reduce (− 26%). The projected drying over the EM can be partitioned between a decrease in CL frequency (~ 137 mm year−1) and a reduction in CL-driven daily precipitation (~ 67 mm year−1). The models further indicate that CLs will be less predictable in the future. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Cyclone dynamics; Cyclone predictability; Cyprus low; Daily precipitation; Dynamical systems; Statistical downscaling; Synoptic classification
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric dynamics; climate change; cyclone; diurnal variation; downscaling; precipitation assessment; prediction; statistical analysis; twenty first century; Cyprus; Mediterranean Sea; Mediterranean Sea (East)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145743
作者单位	Department of Tropospheric Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Germany; Department of Geophysics, Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, 69978, Israel; Department of Applied Mathematics, Environmental Sciences Division, Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness-Ziona, Israel; Department of Geography and the Human–Environment, Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, 69978, Israel; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hochman A.,Alpert P.,Kunin P.,et al. The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Hochman A..,Alpert P..,Kunin P..,Rostkier-Edelstein D..,Harpaz T..,...&Messori G..(2020).The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Hochman A.,et al."The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).