气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Present day bias and future change signal of temperature over China in a series of multi-GCM driven RCM simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05047-x
	Present day bias and future change signal of temperature over China in a series of multi-GCM driven RCM simulations
	Wu J.; Gao X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1113
结束页码	1130
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Simulation of surface air temperature over China from a set of regional climate model (RCM) climate change experiments are analyzed with the focus on bias and change signal of the RCM and driving general circulation models (GCMs). The set consists of 4 simulations by the RCM of RegCM4 driven by 4 different GCMs for the period of 1979–2099 under the mid-range RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathway) scenario. Results show that for present day conditions, the RCM provides with more spatial details of the distribution and in general reduces the biases of GCM, in particular in DJF (December–January–February) and over areas with complex topography. Bias patterns show some correlation between the RCM and driving GCM in DJF but not in JJA (June–July–August). In JJA, the biases in RCM simulations show similar pattern and low sensitivity to the driving GCM, which can be attributed to the large effect of internal model physics in the season. For change signals, dominant forcings from the driving GCM are evident in the RCM simulations as shown by the magnitude, large scale spatial distribution, as well as interannual variation of the changes. The added value of RCM projection is characterized by the finer spatial detail in sub-regional (river basins) and local scale. In DJF, profound warming over the Tibetan Plateau is simulated by RCM but not GCMs. In general no clear relationships are found between the model bias and change signal, either for the driving GCMs or nested RCM. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Bias; Change signal; China; Regional climate model; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; climate modeling; correlation; general circulation model; regional climate; spatiotemporal analysis; warming; China
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145736
作者单位	National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu J.,Gao X.. Present day bias and future change signal of temperature over China in a series of multi-GCM driven RCM simulations[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Wu J.,&Gao X..(2020).Present day bias and future change signal of temperature over China in a series of multi-GCM driven RCM simulations.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Wu J.,et al."Present day bias and future change signal of temperature over China in a series of multi-GCM driven RCM simulations".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).