气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05040-4
	Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution
	Chauvin F.; Pilon R.; Palany P.; Belmadani A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	947
结束页码	972
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The new CNRM-CM6 release of the CNRM/CERFACS atmospheric general circulation model has been used in a rotated/stretched configuration that allows a local horizontal resolution of less than 15 km over the tropical North Atlantic basin. Sea surface temperatures (SST) arise from a previous lower resolution simulation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 exercise and corrected through a quantile–quantile method. Moreover, five-member ensemble simulations have been performed for both present and RCP8.5 scenario climates. For validation purposes, another five-member ensemble simulation has been performed with prescribed observed SST. Tracking of tropical cyclones (TCs) in these simulations reveals that the intensity of the simulated TCs are quite realistic and may reach the strongest hurricane ever observed, allowing to distinguish between TC categories in the analysis. Although the model tends to underestimate the occurrence of TCs over low latitudes, the realism of simulated TCs has nevertheless improved compared to previous versions of the model, due to both increased resolution and changes in the parameterizations used in the model. Changes observed in the simulations between present and future climates confirm previous results stating that there is no clear change in the overall number of TCs but an increase in the intensity of major hurricanes as well as an increase of rainfall in all TC categories. A new result suggests that TC activity response to climate warming may be significantly different from 1 month of the hurricane season to another. In our simulations we observe a robust decrease of TCs in the tropics in July while August and September experience a large increase of TCs over the mid-latitudes. Finally, we find a relation between a large increase in TC activity near the African coast and changes in the African atmospheric dynamics and rainfall in September. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric dynamics; atmospheric general circulation model; future prospect; hurricane; sea surface temperature; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145732
作者单位	Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS, Météo-France 42 avenue G. Coriolis, Toulouse Cedex 1, 31057, France; Direction InterRégionale Antilles-Guyane, Météo-France, Fort-de-France, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chauvin F.,Pilon R.,Palany P.,et al. Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Chauvin F.,Pilon R.,Palany P.,&Belmadani A..(2020).Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Chauvin F.,et al."Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).