气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05398-w
	Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations
	Im E.-S.; Thanh N.-X.; Qiu L.; Ashfaq M.; Gao X.; Yao T.; Torma C.; Adeniyi M.O.; Das S.; Giuliani G.; Coppola E.; Giorgi F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40% of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CORDEX-CORE; Extreme temperature; Heat stress; Time of emergence
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145712
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Academic Building 3594, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong; Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong; Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; Department of Physics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Im E.-S.,Thanh N.-X.,Qiu L.,et al. Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations[J],2020.
APA	Im E.-S..,Thanh N.-X..,Qiu L..,Ashfaq M..,Gao X..,...&Giorgi F..(2020).Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Im E.-S.,et al."Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations".Climate Dynamics (2020).