气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05439-4
	Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations
	Glazer R.H.; Torres-Alavez J.A.; Coppola E.; Giorgi F.; Das S.; Ashfaq M.; Sines T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	Hazardous weather related to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, high-winds, and hail cause significant damage globally to life and property every year. Yet the impact on these storms from a warming climate remains a difficult task due to their transient nature. In this study we investigate the change in large-scale environments in which severe thunderstorms form during twenty-first century warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in a group of RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations. Severe potential is measured in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and vertical wind-shear during the severe seasons in three regions which are known to currently be prone to severe hazards: North America, subtropical South America, and eastern India and Bangladesh. In every region, environments supportive for severe thunderstorms are projected to increase during the warm season months in both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the twenty-first century. The number of days supportive for severe thunderstorms increases by several days per season over the vast majority of each region by the end of the century. Analyzing the CAPE and shear trends during the twenty-first century, we find seasonally and regionally specific changes driving the increased severe potential. Twenty-first century surface warming is clearly driving a robust increase in CAPE in all regions, however poleward displacement of vertical shear in the future leads to the displacement of severe environments over North America and South America. The results found here relate that severe impacts in the future cannot be generalized globally, and that regionally specific changes in vertical shear may drive future movement of regions prone to severe weather. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; CORDEX; RegCM; Severe thunderstorms
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145706
作者单位	Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Glazer R.H.,Torres-Alavez J.A.,Coppola E.,et al. Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations[J],2020.
APA	Glazer R.H..,Torres-Alavez J.A..,Coppola E..,Giorgi F..,Das S..,...&Sines T..(2020).Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Glazer R.H.,et al."Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations".Climate Dynamics (2020).