气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05480-3
	The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia–Northwest Pacific
	Gan R.; Hu K.; Huang G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
英文摘要	The impacts of internal variability on East Asia–Northwest Pacific (EA–NWP) summer rainfall trends on the multidecadal time scale are invested based on three large ensemble simulations, which have ensemble member of 30, 40 and 100. In all the three simulations, the summer rainfall trends during 1970–2005 are remarkably diverse across the individual ensemble members over the EA–NWP, and the signal-to-noise ratio is lower than 1 over the EA–NWP, suggesting a strong impact of internal variability on EA–NWP summer rainfall trends at this interval. Moreover, we found that the diversity of EA–NWP summer rainfall trends across individual members has a similar leading spatial pattern in all the three ensembles, featuring reverse trends between in Mei-yu region and in the tropical NWP. The leading pattern is likely caused by a gradient between the sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and in the tropical western Pacific (WP). When there is a warming trend in the NIO and a cooling trend in the tropical WP, a low-level anomalous anticyclone strengthens over the subtropical NWP, causing a dipole rainfall trend over the EA–NWP. The impact of the east–west SST gradient pattern is confirmed by numerical experiments. Our findings highlight that the internally-generated gradient of NIO–WP SST trends is an important source of the uncertainty in EA–NWP summer rainfall decadal changes in simulations. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Anomalous anticyclone; East Asia summer rainfall; Internal variability
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145675
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing, 100029, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gan R.,Hu K.,Huang G.. The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia–Northwest Pacific[J],2020.
APA	Gan R.,Hu K.,&Huang G..(2020).The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia–Northwest Pacific.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Gan R.,et al."The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia–Northwest Pacific".Climate Dynamics (2020).