气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations: Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05059-7
	Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations: Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming
	Varghese S.J.; Surendran S.; Rajendran K.; Kitoh A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1315
结束页码	1328
卷号	54
英文摘要	Present-day simulations (1983–2003) of a global climate model of 60-km resolution with three deep convection schemes are analysed to find the best scheme for simulation of mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Multiforcing ensemble projections with the best scheme are carried out under multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (based on various socio-economic and technological development at the end of the century), viz. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, forced with four patterns of future sea surface temperature (SST) change for each scenario; one with mean SST changes projected by 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) models and the rest obtained from subgroups of CMIP5 models grouped through cluster analysis of tropical SST changes. These are analysed for future (2079–2099) changes in surface air temperature (T s) and rainfall which show overall increase over India except for rainfall reduction over Western Ghats. We find that combination of enhanced atmospheric water vapour content and increased vertically integrated low level moisture transport into the subcontinent as the major contributing factors for future intensification of ISMR. Extreme events show increase in warm days with significant increase in warm nights. Percentage of grid points showing increased extreme rainfall increases from low to high emission scenario. The high-resolution model enables to study projected changes over India at homogeneous zones level. The maximum increase in T s and rainfall occurs over Western Himalaya and Northeast hilly region respectively. Consistent with future increase in T s and rainfall, their extreme events also increase over all the homogeneous zones. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate projections; Ensemble simulations; Extreme events; ISMR; Representative concentration pathways
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; global climate; global warming; moisture transfer; monsoon; rainfall; resolution; sea surface temperature; water vapor; India
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145635
作者单位	Multi-Scale Modelling Programme, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, 560037, India; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201002, India; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tsukuba, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Varghese S.J.,Surendran S.,Rajendran K.,et al. Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations: Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming[J],2020,54.
APA	Varghese S.J.,Surendran S.,Rajendran K.,&Kitoh A..(2020).Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations: Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Varghese S.J.,et al."Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations: Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).