气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Early prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Atlantic Meridional Mode

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05117-0
	Early prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Atlantic Meridional Mode
	Vittal H.; Villarini G.; Zhang W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2337
结束页码	2346
卷号	54
英文摘要	Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) provides 80% of India’s total annual precipitation and thus has a tremendous impact on water resource management, agricultural yield and,consequently, India’s gross domestic product. Because of its importance, different studies have examined climatic controls on ISMR. Here we found a link between the spring (March–May; MAM) Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) and the ISMR, with the strengthening (weakening) of ISMR during the positive (negative) phase of the AMM. During the positive phase of the spring AMM, warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persist over the tropical north Atlantic Ocean, strengthening anomalous cyclonic circulation and strengthening convection over the Sahel region; this process, in turn, modulates the winds over the Western Indian Ocean, cooling SST and strengthening monsoon circulation over India. However, during the negative phase of the spring AMM, we notice a weakening of the monsoon circulation over India. As a way of highlighting the importance of this climate connection, we compare the skill in forecasting ISMR using the information from the pre-monsoon AMM against the forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Over the years 1981–2017, our simple model produces more accurate results than the NMME models, and further highlights the crucial role played by pre-monsoon AMM in modulating the IMSR. This new finding will allow for Indian farmers and policy makers to better anticipate water availability from ISMR. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	monsoon; precipitation assessment; prediction; rainfall; sea surface temperature; summer; water availability; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); India; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (West); Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145611
作者单位	IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States; Department Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vittal H.,Villarini G.,Zhang W.. Early prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Atlantic Meridional Mode[J],2020,54.
APA	Vittal H.,Villarini G.,&Zhang W..(2020).Early prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Atlantic Meridional Mode.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Vittal H.,et al."Early prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Atlantic Meridional Mode".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).