气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7
	Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa
	Sidibe M.; Dieppois B.; Eden J.; Mahé G.; Paturel J.-E.; Amoussou E.; Anifowose B.; Van De Wiel M.; Lawler D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2041
结束页码	2070
卷号	54
英文摘要	Climate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in West and Central Africa through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study, we examine the potential impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems by the mid-21st century in West and Central Africa, as well as the uncertainties in the different climate-impact modelling pathways. Simulations from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4) are evaluated and subsequently bias-corrected using a nonparametric trend-preserving quantile mapping approach. We then use two conceptual hydrological models (GR2M and IHACRES), and a regression-based model built upon multi-timescale sea surface temperatures and streamflow teleconnections, to understand hydrological processes at the subcontinental scale and provide hydrological predictions for the near-term future (2020–2050) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The results highlight a zonal contrast in future precipitation between western (dry) and eastern (wet) Sahel, and a robust signal in rising temperature, suggesting an increase in potential evapotranspiration, across the multi-model ensemble. Overall, across the region, a significant increase in discharge (~ + 5%) is expected by the mid-21st century, albeit with high uncertainties reported over most of Central Equatorial Africa inherent to climate models and gridded observation data quality. Interestingly, in this region, teleconnections-based regression models tend to be an alternative to hydrological models. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hydroclimatic variability; Rainfall-runoff modelling; RCP4.5 scenario; Streamflow projections; West and Central Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; hydrological response; hydrometeorology; rainfall-runoff modeling; streamflow; twenty first century; Central Africa; West Africa
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145606
作者单位	Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience (CAWR), Coventry University, Ryton Gardens, Ryton on Dunsmore, Coventry, CV8 3LG, United Kingdom; Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; HydroSciences Montpellier (HSM), IRD, Montpellier, France; Département de Géographie et Aménagement du Territoire (DGAT), Université de Parakou, Parakou, Benin; School of Energy, Construction and Environment, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sidibe M.,Dieppois B.,Eden J.,et al. Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa[J],2020,54.
APA	Sidibe M..,Dieppois B..,Eden J..,Mahé G..,Paturel J.-E..,...&Lawler D..(2020).Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Sidibe M.,et al."Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).