气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05104-5
	Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling
	Hermans T.H.J.; Tinker J.; Palmer M.D.; Katsman C.A.; Vermeersen B.L.A.; Slangen A.B.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1987
结束页码	2011
卷号	54
英文摘要	Changes in ocean properties and circulation lead to a spatially non-uniform pattern of ocean dynamic sea-level change (DSLC). The projections of ocean dynamic sea level presented in the IPCC AR5 were constructed with global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Since CMIP5 GCMs have a relatively coarse resolution and exclude tides and surges it is unclear whether they are suitable for providing DSLC projections in shallow coastal regions such as the Northwestern European Shelf (NWES). One approach to addressing these shortcomings is dynamical downscaling – i.e. using a high-resolution regional model forced with output from GCMs. Here we use the regional shelf seas model AMM7 to show that, depending on the driving CMIP5 GCM, dynamical downscaling can have a large impact on DSLC simulations in the NWES region. For a business-as-usual greenhouse gas concentration scenario, we find that downscaled simulations of twenty-first century DSLC can be up to 15.5 cm smaller than DSLC in the GCM simulations along the North Sea coastline owing to unresolved processes in the GCM. Furthermore, dynamical downscaling affects the simulated time of emergence of sea-level change (SLC) above sea-level variability, and can result in differences in the projected change of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea level of over 0.3 mm/yr. We find that the difference between GCM and downscaled results is of similar magnitude to the uncertainty of CMIP5 ensembles used for previous DSLC projections. Our results support a role for dynamical downscaling in future regional sea-level projections to aid coastal decision makers. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Dynamical downscaling; Global climate models; Northwestern European shelf; Regional sea level; Sea-level projections; Sea-level variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric general circulation model; climate modeling; CMIP; downscaling; global climate; sea level change; Atlantic Ocean; North Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145597
作者单位	Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, and Utrecht University, PO Box 140, Yerseke, 4400 AC, Netherlands; Civil Engineering and Geoscience, Department of Geosciences and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands; Hadley Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Civil Engineering and Geoscience, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands; Aerospace Engineering, Department of Astrodynamics and Space Missions, Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, Delft, 2629 HS, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hermans T.H.J.,Tinker J.,Palmer M.D.,et al. Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling[J],2020,54.
APA	Hermans T.H.J.,Tinker J.,Palmer M.D.,Katsman C.A.,Vermeersen B.L.A.,&Slangen A.B.A..(2020).Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Hermans T.H.J.,et al."Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).