气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05125-5
	Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach
	Wang M.; Ullrich P.; Millstein D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2511
结束页码	2531
卷号	54
英文摘要	Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Clustering; Variable-resolution climate modeling; Wind energy
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; cluster analysis; weather forecasting; wind forcing; wind power; wind velocity; California; United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145582
作者单位	University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, United States; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang M.,Ullrich P.,Millstein D.. Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach[J],2020,54.
APA	Wang M.,Ullrich P.,&Millstein D..(2020).Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Wang M.,et al."Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).