气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A phase-space consideration of changing climate-PDF

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05130-8
	A phase-space consideration of changing climate-PDF
	Reimann L.; von Storch J.-S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2633
结束页码	2662
卷号	54
英文摘要	Based on a single-model 100-member ensemble of climate change simulations performed with the MPI-ESM, this paper investigates how the probability density function (PDF) of atmospheric general circulation (AGC)—a marginal distribution of the full climate PDF—responds to increasing CO 2 concentration. The investigation provides a first assessment of CO 2-induced changes in AGC-PDF derived from ensemble statistics (as oppose to time statistics in usual practice) that arise solely from internal variability consistent with the imposed CO 2-forcing. By focusing on the first two moments of the AGC-PDF related to the Hadley circulation and the subtropical jets, we find that the major CO 2-induced changes in the PDF are related to structure changes in the mean circulation and in the circulation variability. As CO 2 concentration increases, different components of the AGC can co-evolve with changing forcing. In particular, the mean Hadley cell co-evolves with the mean subtropical jets. The co-evolution is characterized by the concurrent Hadley cell widening and poleward shifting of the subtropical jets (particularly strong in January), by a strengthening of both the Hadley cell and the subtropical jets in October, and by a weakening of the Hadley cell and a strengthening of the northern and southern jets in January. The changes in circulation variability are more subtle, and reveal only large and spatially coherent changes in places, where the variability is already strong without increasing CO 2 concentration, such as at the northern and southern flanks of the summer southern subtropical jet, and at the northern flank of the southern polar night jet. There are some significant cross-variabilities between different components of the AGC. Overall, the CO 2-induced AGC-changes can be described by linear trends in the first and second moments, with the trends in the means being much stronger than those in the variances and co-variances. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Atmospheric general circulation; Climate change; Climate-pdf; CO 2-induced changes in; Hadley circulation; Jet stream; Large single-model ensemble; Phase-space consideration of climate-pdf arising solely from internal variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric general circulation model; carbon dioxide; climate change; Hadley cell; jet stream; probability density function
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145567
作者单位	Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Reimann L.,von Storch J.-S.. A phase-space consideration of changing climate-PDF[J],2020,54.
APA	Reimann L.,&von Storch J.-S..(2020).A phase-space consideration of changing climate-PDF.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Reimann L.,et al."A phase-space consideration of changing climate-PDF".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).