气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05146-0
	Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia
	Rana A.; Nikulin G.; Kjellström E.; Strandberg G.; Kupiainen M.; Hansson U.; Kolax M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2883
结束页码	2901
卷号	54
英文摘要	Two ensembles of climate simulations, one global and one regional, are used to investigate model errors and projected climate change in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over South Asia. The global ensemble includes ten global climate models (GCMs). In the regional ensemble all ten GCMs are downscaled by a regional climate model—RCA4 over South Asia at 50 km resolution. Our focus is on the Indian Summer Monsoon season (June–August) and we show that RCA4 can reproduce, reduce or amplify large-scale GCM biases depending on regions and GCMs. However, the RCA4 bias pattern in precipitation is similar across the simulations, regardless of forcing GCM, indicating a strong RCA4 imprint on the simulated precipitation. For climate change, the results indicate, that RCA4 can change the signal projected by the GCM ensemble and its individual members. There are a few RCA4 simulations with a substantial reduction of projected warming by RCA4 compared to the driving GCMs and with a large regional increase in precipitation absent in the GCMs. We also found that in a number of subregions warm RCA4 biases are related to stronger warming and vice versa, while there is no such dependency in the GCM ensemble. Neither the GCM nor the RCA4 ensemble shows any significant dependency between projected changes and biases for precipitation. Our results implicate that using only RCMs and excluding GCMs, a commonly established approach, can significantly change the message on future regional climate change. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; CMIP5; CORDEX; South Asia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; CMIP; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; precipitation assessment; regional climate; seasonal variation; temperature anomaly; South Asia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145564
作者单位	Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden; Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute (ELIC), Place Louis Pasteur 3, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium; Department of Meteorology and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rana A.,Nikulin G.,Kjellström E.,et al. Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia[J],2020,54.
APA	Rana A..,Nikulin G..,Kjellström E..,Strandberg G..,Kupiainen M..,...&Kolax M..(2020).Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Rana A.,et al."Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).