气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal prediction of the northern and southern temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon: the importance of the Arctic sea ice

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05182-w
	Seasonal prediction of the northern and southern temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon: the importance of the Arctic sea ice
	Zhang P.; Wu Z.; Li J.; Xiao Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3583
结束页码	3597
卷号	54
英文摘要	Previous research work found that two distinct surface air temperature (SAT) modes—the northern (N-) and the southern (S-) modes dominate the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) region. The inter-annual variations of these two modes were mainly attributed to preceding Siberian snow cover anomalies and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observed evidence in this study shows that sea ice anomalies on Barents–Kara (BK) and Laptev Seas and those on Chukchi–Beaufort (CB) Sea in autumn have co-mingled effects on the two abnormal EAWM modes. If negative sea ice anomalies appear in the BK and northern CB Sea in September–October (SO), the following winter SAT anomaly over East Asia is featured by an obvious cooling north of 40° N, which highly resembles the SAT N-mode of EAWM. If negative sea ice anomalies occur in BK–Laptev Sea but positive anomalies in the southern CB Sea, the East Asia winter SAT anomaly exhibits a salient cold condition over the south of 40° N and corresponds to the EAWM S-mode. The above results indicate that autumn Arctic sea ice can provide another predictability source for the EAWM, besides Siberian snow cover and ENSO. To further verify its contribution to seasonal prediction of the EAWM, a series of physical–empirical models are established using the combinations of SO Arctic sea ice, autumn Siberian snow cover and ENSO. Hindcast experiment output shows when adding autumn Arctic sea ice into the predictors, the cross-validated prediction skill is significantly improved. The possible physical mechanisms on how preceding Arctic sea ice anomalies impact on the N- and S- modes are also discussed. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; arctic environment; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; monsoon; prediction; sea ice; seasonal variation; surface temperature; Arctic Ocean; Barents Sea; Chukchi Sea; Laptev Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145527
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, 2005 Songhu Rd, Yangpu, Shanghai, 200438, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, 200030, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang P.,Wu Z.,Li J.,et al. Seasonal prediction of the northern and southern temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon: the importance of the Arctic sea ice[J],2020,54.
APA	Zhang P.,Wu Z.,Li J.,&Xiao Z..(2020).Seasonal prediction of the northern and southern temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon: the importance of the Arctic sea ice.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Zhang P.,et al."Seasonal prediction of the northern and southern temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon: the importance of the Arctic sea ice".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).