气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05208-3
	Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region
	Saurral R.I.; García-Serrano J.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Díaz L.B.; Vera C.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3945
结束页码	3958
卷号	54
英文摘要	The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	ENSO; IPO; Near-term climate predictions; South Pacific; SST
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; decadal variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; hindcasting; precipitation (climatology); prediction; radiative forcing; sea surface temperature; Southern Hemisphere; temperature anomaly; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (South)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145498
作者单位	Universidad de Buenos Aires, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/UBA-CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO/FCEN/UBA), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Institut Franco-Argentin d’Estudes sur le Climat et ses Impacts, Unité Mixte Internationale (UMI-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Saurral R.I.,García-Serrano J.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.,et al. Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region[J],2020,54.
APA	Saurral R.I.,García-Serrano J.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.,Díaz L.B.,&Vera C.S..(2020).Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Saurral R.I.,et al."Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).