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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05207-4
	Large-scale environmental controls on the seasonal statistics of rapidly intensifying North Atlantic tropical cyclones
	Ng C.H.J.; Vecchi G.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3907
结束页码	3925
卷号	54
英文摘要	This study is concerned with the connections between the large-scale environment and the seasonal occurrence of rapid intensification (RI) of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Physically-motivated statistical analysis using observations and reanalysis products suggests that for tropical cyclones over the open tropical North Atlantic, the interannual variability of the probability of storms undergoing RI is influenced by seasonal large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables, but not so for storms over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. We suggest that this differentiated response is due to the former region exhibiting a strong negative correlation between the seasonal anomalies of vertical wind shear and potential intensity. Differences in the mean climatology and subseasonal variations of the large-scale environment in these regions appear to play an insignificant role in the distinctive seasonal environmental controls on RI. We suggest that the interannual correlation of vertical wind shear and potential intensity is an indicator of seasonal predictability of tropical cyclone activity (including RI) across the tropics. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	North Atlantic; Rapid intensification; Seasonal predictability; Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; mesoscale meteorology; numerical model; probability; seasonal variation; tropical cyclone; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Gulf of Mexico
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145495
作者单位	Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS), Princeton University, 300 Forrestal Road, Sayre Hall, Princeton, NJ 08540-6659, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540-6649, United States; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540-6649, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ng C.H.J.,Vecchi G.A.. Large-scale environmental controls on the seasonal statistics of rapidly intensifying North Atlantic tropical cyclones[J],2020,54.
APA	Ng C.H.J.,&Vecchi G.A..(2020).Large-scale environmental controls on the seasonal statistics of rapidly intensifying North Atlantic tropical cyclones.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Ng C.H.J.,et al."Large-scale environmental controls on the seasonal statistics of rapidly intensifying North Atlantic tropical cyclones".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).