气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation in Chile based on statistical downscaling

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05231-4
	Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation in Chile based on statistical downscaling
	Araya-Osses D.; Casanueva A.; Román-Figueroa C.; Uribe J.M.; Paneque M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4309
结束页码	4330
卷号	54
英文摘要	General circulation models (GCMs) allow the analysis of potential changes in the climate system under different emissions scenarios. However, their spatial resolution is too coarse to produce useful climate information for impact/adaptation assessments. This is especially relevant for regions with complex orography and coastlines, such as in Chile. Downscaling techniques attempt to reduce the gap between global and regional/local scales; for instance, statistical downscaling methods establish empirical relationships between large-scale predictors and local predictands. Here, statistical downscaling was employed to generate climate change projections of daily maximum/minimum temperatures and precipitation in more than 400 locations in Chile using the analog method, which identifies the most similar or analog day based on similarities of large-scale patterns from a pool of historical records. A cross-validation framework was applied using different sets of potential predictors from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis following the perfect prognosis approach. The best-performing set was used to downscale six different CMIP5 GCMs (forced by three representative concentration pathways, RCPs). As a result, minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to increase in the entire Chilean territory throughout all seasons. Specifically, the minimum (maximum) temperature is projected to increase by more than 2 °C (6 °C) under the RCP8.5 scenario in the austral winter by the end of the twenty-first century. Precipitation changes exhibit a larger spatial variability. By the end of the twenty-first century, a winter precipitation decrease exceeding 40% is projected under RCP8.5 in the central-southern zone, while an increase of over 60% is projected in the northern Andes. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; GCMs; Precipitation; Predictors; Statistical downscaling; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; climate prediction; downscaling; general circulation model; precipitation (climatology); statistical analysis; winter; Andes; Chile
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145482
作者单位	Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Universidad de Chile, Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, Santiago 8820808, Chile; Bionostra Chile Research Foundation, Almirante Lynch 1179, San Miguel, Santiago 8920033, Chile; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich Airport, Zürich, 8058, Switzerland; Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Sciences, University of Cantabria, Santander, 39005, Spain; Doctoral Program in Sciences of Natural Resources, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, 4811230, Chile
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Araya-Osses D.,Casanueva A.,Román-Figueroa C.,et al. Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation in Chile based on statistical downscaling[J],2020,54.
APA	Araya-Osses D.,Casanueva A.,Román-Figueroa C.,Uribe J.M.,&Paneque M..(2020).Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation in Chile based on statistical downscaling.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Araya-Osses D.,et al."Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation in Chile based on statistical downscaling".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).