气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands; Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05212-7
	Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands; Africa
	Chou S.C.; de Arruda Lyra A.; Gomes J.L.; Rodriguez D.A.; Alves Martins M.; Costa Resende N.; da Silva Tavares P.; Pereira Dereczynski C.; Lopes Pilotto I.; Martins A.M.; Alves de Carvalho L.F.; Lima Onofre J.L.; Major I.; Penhor M.; Santana A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4021
结束页码	4042
卷号	54
英文摘要	Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular African country extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels and impacts such as inundation, shore line change, and salt water intrusion into underground aquifers. Projections of climate change have considered coarse model resolutions. The objective of this work is to dynamically downscale the global model projections to 4-km resolution and to assess the climate change in the Sao Tome and Principe islands. The global climate projections are provided by the Canadian Earth System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling is produced by the Eta regional climate model. The baseline period is taken between 1971 and 2000, and the future climate period is taken between 2041 and 2070. The 2-m temperature simulations show good agreement with station data. The model simulates temperature more accurately than precipitation. The precipitation simulations systematically show underestimation and delay of the rainy and the dry seasons by about 1 month, a feature inherited from the global climate model. In the middle of the 21st century, projections show the strongest warming in the elevated parts of the Sao Tome Island, especially in February under RCP8.5. Warmer nights and warmer days become more frequent in the islands when compared with those in the present. While under RCP4.5, precipitation increases in the islands; under RCP8.5, it decreases everywhere in both islands. Heavy precipitation rates should increase, especially in the south-southwestern parts of the Sao Tome islands. Detailed spatial variability of the temperature and precipitation changes in the islands can only be revealed at very high spatial model resolution. Implications for the potential energy production from two major river basins are assessed in this work. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Central Africa; Downscaling; Eta model; Gulf of Guinea; Regional climate model; Small Islands developing states
语种	英语
scopus关键词	accuracy assessment; climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; downscaling; future prospect; numerical model; precipitation intensity; regional climate; spatial variation; weather forecasting; Sao Tome and Principe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145478
作者单位	National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rod Pres Dutra km 39, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Av. Athos da Silveira Ramos 274, Ilha do Fundão, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; National Institute of Meteorology, Sao Tome Airport, Sao Tome, Sao Tome and Principe
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chou S.C.,de Arruda Lyra A.,Gomes J.L.,et al. Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands; Africa[J],2020,54.
APA	Chou S.C..,de Arruda Lyra A..,Gomes J.L..,Rodriguez D.A..,Alves Martins M..,...&Santana A..(2020).Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands; Africa.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Chou S.C.,et al."Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands; Africa".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).