气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of the extratropics on ENSO diversity and predictability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05232-3
	The impact of the extratropics on ENSO diversity and predictability
	Pegion K.; Selman C.M.; Larson S.; Furtado J.C.; Becker E.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4469
结束页码	4484
卷号	54
英文摘要	Several mechanisms originating in the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) are argued to have the ability to stochastically force ENSO events. In this study, the impact of these extratropical mechanisms on ENSO diversity and predictability are evaluated using linear regression methodologies from information theory and machine learning applied to observational data. Overfitting is often an issue when investigating different extratropical mechanisms, as they are highly correlated in both space and time. The statistical methods in this study are specifically designed to address this issue. Results show that at 1-year lead-times, the extratropics are related to development of Central Pacific (CP), but not Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events. In boreal winter, the SH extratropics contribute to the predictability of CP ENSO, much further in advance than previous studies have indicated. The dominant NH predictor of CP ENSO from one winter to the next is identified as a sea surface temperature dipole in the Western North Pacific. Finally, separation of CP ENSO into its extratropical and tropical related components demonstrates that CP ENSO events with strong forcing from the extratropics start one season earlier than events primarily forced from the Tropics and thus have the potential for longer lead predictability, up to 1-year in advance of a CP ENSO event. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	ENSO; Extratropics; Predictability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; climate forcing; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extratropical environment; Northern Hemisphere; sea surface temperature; Southern Hemisphere; stochasticity; weather forecasting; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Central); Pacific Ocean (East); Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145476
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, 4400 University Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States; Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pegion K.,Selman C.M.,Larson S.,et al. The impact of the extratropics on ENSO diversity and predictability[J],2020,54.
APA	Pegion K.,Selman C.M.,Larson S.,Furtado J.C.,&Becker E.J..(2020).The impact of the extratropics on ENSO diversity and predictability.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Pegion K.,et al."The impact of the extratropics on ENSO diversity and predictability".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).