气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05233-2
	Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes
	Suarez-Gutierrez L.; Müller W.A.; Li C.; Marotzke J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4351
结束页码	4366
卷号	54
英文摘要	We use the 100-member Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) to disentangle the contributions from colocated dynamic atmospheric conditions and local thermodynamic effects of moisture limitation as drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes. Using a novel extreme event definition, we find that heat extremes with respect to the evolving mean climate increase by 70% under a moderate warming scenario during the twenty-first century. With a multiple regression approach, we find that the dynamical mechanisms representing blocking and anticyclonic conditions are the main driver of variability in extreme European summer temperatures, both in past and future climates. By contrast, local thermodynamic drivers play a secondary role in explaining the total variability in extreme temperatures. We also find that considering both dynamical and thermodynamical sources of variability simultaneously is crucial. Assessing only one type of drivers leads to an overestimation of their effect on extreme temperatures, particularly when considering only thermodynamical drivers. Lastly, we find that although most past and future heat extremes occur under favorable dynamical atmospheric conditions; this occurs 10–40% less frequently over Central Europe in the twenty-first century. By contrast, heat extremes over Central Europe occur 40% more frequently under concurrent extreme moisture limitation in the twenty-first Century. Our findings highlight a new type of neutral-atmosphere, moisture-driven heat extremes, and confirm that the increase in European heat extremes and associated variability increase are dominated by the local thermodynamic effect of moisture limitation. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Adaptation to mean warming; Drivers of variability; European heat extremes; European summer temperatures; Extreme temperatures; Large ensemble
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric dynamics; climate modeling; extreme event; future prospect; moisture transfer; regression analysis; summer; thermodynamics; twenty first century; weather forecasting; Central Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics (IF:4.048[JCR-2018],4.785[5-Year])
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145474
作者单位	Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,Müller W.A.,Li C.,et al. Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes[J],2020,54.
APA	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,Müller W.A.,Li C.,&Marotzke J..(2020).Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,et al."Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).