气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05250-1
	Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change
	Di Virgilio G.; Evans J.P.; Di Luca A.; Grose M.R.; Round V.; Thatcher M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4675
结束页码	4692
卷号	54
英文摘要	Coarse resolution global climate models (GCMs) cannot resolve fine-scale drivers of regional climate, which is the scale where climate adaptation decisions are made. Regional climate models (RCMs) generate high-resolution projections by dynamically downscaling GCM outputs. However, evidence of where and when downscaling provides new information about both the current climate (added value, AV) and projected climate change signals, relative to driving data, is lacking. Seasons and locations where CORDEX-Australasia ERA-Interim and GCM-driven RCMs show AV for mean and extreme precipitation and temperature are identified. A new concept is introduced, ‘realised added value’, that identifies where and when RCMs simultaneously add value in the present climate and project a different climate change signal, thus suggesting plausible improvements in future climate projections by RCMs. ERA-Interim-driven RCMs add value to the simulation of summer-time mean precipitation, especially over northern and eastern Australia. GCM-driven RCMs show AV for precipitation over complex orography in south-eastern Australia during winter and widespread AV for mean and extreme minimum temperature during both seasons, especially over coastal and high-altitude areas. RCM projections of decreased winter rainfall over the Australian Alps and decreased summer rainfall over northern Australia are collocated with notable realised added value. Realised added value averaged across models, variables, seasons and statistics is evident across the majority of Australia and shows where plausible improvements in future climate projections are conferred by RCMs. This assessment of varying RCM capabilities to provide realised added value to GCM projections can be applied globally to inform climate adaptation and model development. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate extremes; Climate impact adaptation; CORDEX-Australasia; Precipitation; Regional climate modelling; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric dynamics; climate change; climate modeling; downscaling; extreme event; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; regional climate; Australia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145444
作者单位	Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Melbourne, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Di Virgilio G.,Evans J.P.,Di Luca A.,et al. Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change[J],2020,54.
APA	Di Virgilio G.,Evans J.P.,Di Luca A.,Grose M.R.,Round V.,&Thatcher M..(2020).Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Di Virgilio G.,et al."Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).