气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled earth system models at high horizontal resolution

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05272-9
	Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled earth system models at high horizontal resolution
	Avila-Diaz A.; Abrahão G.; Justino F.; Torres R.; Wilson A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5065
结束页码	5088
卷号	54
英文摘要	This study evaluated the performance of 25 earth system models (ESMs), statistically and dynamically downscaled to a high horizontal resolution (0.25° of latitude/longitude), in simulating extreme climate indices of temperature and precipitation for 1980–2005. Datasets analyzed include 21 statistically downscaled ESMs from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) and dynamically downscaled Eta Regional Climate Model simulations driven by 4 ESMs generated by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Downscaled outputs were evaluated against observational gridded datasets at 0.25° resolution over Brazil, quantifying the skill in simulating the observed spatial patterns and trends of climate extremes. Results show that the downscaled products are generally able to reproduce the observed climate indices, although most of them have poorest performance over the Amazon basin for annual and seasonal indices. We find larger discrepancies in the warm spell duration index for almost all downscaled ESMs. The overall ranking shows that three downscaled models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3) perform distinctively better than others. In general, the ensemble mean of the statistically downscaled models achieves better results than any individual models at the annual and seasonal scales. This work provides the largest and most comprehensive intercomparison of statistically and dynamically downscaled extreme climate indices over Brazil and provides a useful guide for researchers and developers to select the models or downscaling techniques that may be most suitable to their applications of interest over a given region. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate extremes; CMIP5; Model evaluation; Performance metrics; Trends
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate modeling; CMIP; downscaling; extreme event; performance assessment; precipitation (climatology); resolution; trend analysis; Brazil
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145435
作者单位	Department of Agricultural Engineering, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG, Brazil; Natural Resources Institute, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Itajubá, MG, Brazil; Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Avila-Diaz A.,Abrahão G.,Justino F.,et al. Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled earth system models at high horizontal resolution[J],2020,54.
APA	Avila-Diaz A.,Abrahão G.,Justino F.,Torres R.,&Wilson A..(2020).Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled earth system models at high horizontal resolution.Climate Dynamics,54.
MLA	Avila-Diaz A.,et al."Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled earth system models at high horizontal resolution".Climate Dynamics 54(2020).