气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8
	A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean
	Coppola E.; Sobolowski S.; Pichelli E.; Raffaele F.; Ahrens B.; Anders I.; Ban N.; Bastin S.; Belda M.; Belusic D.; Caldas-Alvarez A.; Cardoso R.M.; Davolio S.; Dobler A.; Fernandez J.; Fita L.; Fumiere Q.; Giorgi F.; Goergen K.; Güttler I.; Halenka T.; Heinzeller D.; Hodnebrog Ø.; Jacob D.; Kartsios S.; Katragkou E.; Kendon E.; Khodayar S.; Kunstmann H.; Knist S.; Lavín-Gullón A.; Lind P.; Lorenz T.; Maraun D.; Marelle L.; van Meijgaard E.; Milovac J.; Myhre G.; Panitz H.-J.; Piazza M.; Raffa M.; Raub T.; Rockel B.; Schär C.; Sieck K.; Soares P.M.M.; Somot S.; Srnec L.; Stocchi P.; Tölle M.H.; Truhetz H.; Vautard R.; de Vries H.; Warrach-Sagi K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3
结束页码	34
卷号	55
英文摘要	A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate applications; Convection-permitting; Ensemble models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric convection; atmospheric correction; climate modeling; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; performance assessment; weather forecasting; Alps; Austria; Switzerland
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145415
作者单位	International Centre for Theoretical Physics (International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)), Trieste, Italy; Uni Research, The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt a.M. Frankfurt/Main, Frankfurt, Germany; ZAMG (Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics), Vienna, Austria; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), LATMOS, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS, Guyancourt, France; Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy; The Norwegia...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Coppola E.,Sobolowski S.,Pichelli E.,et al. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean[J],2020,55.
APA	Coppola E..,Sobolowski S..,Pichelli E..,Raffaele F..,Ahrens B..,...&Warrach-Sagi K..(2020).A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Coppola E.,et al."A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).