气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in North America’s current and future climate

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04754-9
	Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in North America’s current and future climate
	Scaff L.; Prein A.F.; Li Y.; Liu C.; Rasmussen R.; Ikeda K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	369
结束页码	382
卷号	55
英文摘要	Convection-permitting models (CPM) with at least 4 km horizontal grid spacing enable the cumulus parameterization to be switched off and thus simulate convective processes more realistically than coarse resolution models. This study investigates if a North American scale CPM can reproduce the observed warm season precipitation diurnal cycle on a climate scale. Potential changes in the precipitation diurnal cycle characteristics at the end of the twenty first century are also investigated using the pseudo global warming approach under a high-end anthropogenic emission scenario (RCP8.5). Simulations are performed with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model with 4-km horizontal grid spacing. Results from the WRF historical run (2001–2013) are evaluated against hourly precipitation from 2903 weather stations and a gridded hourly precipitation product in the U.S. The magnitude and timing of the diurnal cycle peak are realistically simulated in most of the U.S. and southern Canada. The model also captures the transition from afternoon precipitation peaks eastward of the Rocky Mountains to night peaks in the central U.S., which is related to propagating mesoscale convective systems. However, the historical climate simulation does not capture the observed early morning peaks in the central U.S. and overestimates the magnitude of the diurnal precipitation peak in the southeast region. In the simulation of the future climate, both the precipitation amount of the diurnal cycle and precipitation intensity increase throughout the domain, along with an increase in precipitation frequency in the northern region of the domain in May. These increases indicate a clear intensification of the hydrologic cycle during the warm season with potential impacts on future water resources, agriculture, and flooding. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Convection-permitting modeling; North America; Precipitation diurnal cycle; Pseudo global warming approach; Weather Research and Forecasting model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; computer simulation; convective system; diurnal variation; future prospect; mesoscale meteorology; numerical model; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; weather forecasting; Canada; North America; Rocky Mountains; United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145412
作者单位	Global Institute for Water Security at the University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5, Canada; National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scaff L.,Prein A.F.,Li Y.,等. Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in North America’s current and future climate[J],2020,55.
APA	Scaff L.,Prein A.F.,Li Y.,Liu C.,Rasmussen R.,&Ikeda K..(2020).Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in North America’s current and future climate.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Scaff L.,et al."Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in North America’s current and future climate".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).