气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05292-5
	Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach
	Tao L.; Duan W.; Vannitsem S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	739
结束页码	754
卷号	55
英文摘要	Observations indicate that two types of El Niño events exist: one is the EP-El Niño with a warming center in the eastern tropical Pacific, and the other is the CP-El Niño with large positive SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific. Most current numerical models are not able to accurately identify the different types of El Niño. The present study examines the dynamic properties of the ENSO forecast system NFSV-ICM which combines an intermediate-complexity ENSO model (ICM) with a nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)-based tendency perturbation forecast model. This system is able to distinguish the different types of El Niño in predictions. Hindcasts show that the NFSV-ICM system is able to capture the horizontal distribution of the SST anomalies and their amplitudes in the mature phase of not only EP-El Niño events but also CP-El Niño events. The NFSV-ICM is also able to describe the evolution of SST anomalies associated with the two types of El Niño up to at least two-season lead times, while the corresponding forecasts with the ICM are limited to, at most, one-season lead times. These improvements are associated with the modifications of the atmospheric and ocean processes described by the ICM through the NFSV-based tendency perturbations. In particular, the thermocline and zonal advection feedback are strongly modified, and the conditions of the emergence of both EP- and CP-El Niño events are improved. The NFSV-ICM therefore provides a useful platform for studying ENSO dynamics and predictability associated with El Niño diversities. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; atmospheric forcing; climate modeling; dynamic property; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; forecasting method; hindcasting; nonlinearity; perturbation; sea surface temperature; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145403
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, 1180, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tao L.,Duan W.,Vannitsem S.. Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach[J],2020,55.
APA	Tao L.,Duan W.,&Vannitsem S..(2020).Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Tao L.,et al."Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).