气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Conceptual deconstruction of the simulated precipitation response to climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05286-3
	Conceptual deconstruction of the simulated precipitation response to climate change
	Stassen C.; Dommenget D.; Chadwick R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	613
结束页码	630
卷号	55
英文摘要	State-of-the-art climate change projections of the CMIP5 simulations suggest a fairly complex pattern of global precipitation changes, with regions of reduced and enhanced precipitation. Conceptual understanding of these projected precipitation changes is difficult if only based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, due to the complexity of these models. In this study we describe a simple deconstruction of the ensemble mean CMIP5 projections based on sensitivity simulations with the globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model. In a series of sensitivity experiments we force the GREB model with four different CMIP5 ensemble mean changes in: surface temperature, evaporation and the vertical atmospheric velocities mean and its standard deviation. The resulting response in the precipitation of the GREB model is very close to the CMIP5 ensemble mean response, suggesting that the precipitation changes can be well represented by a linear combination of these four forcings. The results further provide good insights into the drivers of precipitation change. The GREB model suggests that not one forcing alone can be seen as the main driver, but only the combination of all four changes results in the complex response pattern. However, the dominant forcings are the changes in the large-scale circulation, rather than the pure thermodynamic warming effect. Here, it is interesting to note that changes in high-frequency atmospheric variability of vertical air motion (weather), that are partly independent of the changes in the mean circulation, have a control on the pattern of the time-mean global precipitation changes. The approach presented here provides a powerful basis on which the hydrological cycles of CGCM simulations can be analysed. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hydrological cycle; Precipitation; Simple climate model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; conceptual framework; energy balance; ensemble forecasting; general circulation model; numerical model; precipitation (climatology); sensitivity analysis
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145399
作者单位	ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Clayton, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Clayton, Australia; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stassen C.,Dommenget D.,Chadwick R.. Conceptual deconstruction of the simulated precipitation response to climate change[J],2020,55.
APA	Stassen C.,Dommenget D.,&Chadwick R..(2020).Conceptual deconstruction of the simulated precipitation response to climate change.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Stassen C.,et al."Conceptual deconstruction of the simulated precipitation response to climate change".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).