气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: results from CORDEX RCMs

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05309-z
	Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: results from CORDEX RCMs
	Ogega O.M.; Koske J.; Kung’u J.B.; Scoccimarro E.; Endris H.S.; Mistry M.N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	993
结束页码	1009
卷号	55
英文摘要	The study assesses the performance of 24 model runs from five COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating East Africa’s spatio-temporal precipitation characteristics using a set of eight descriptors: consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), mean daily annual (pr_ANN), seasonal (pr_MAM and pr_OND) precipitation, and representatives of heavy precipitation (90p) and very intense precipitation (99p) events. Relatively better performing RCM runs are then used to assess projected precipitation changes (for the period 2071–2099 relative to 1977–2005) over the study domain under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The performance of RCMs is found to be descriptor and scope specific. Overall, RCA4 (r1i1p1) forced by CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, REMO2009 (r1i1p1) forced by MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, and RCA4 (r2i1p1) forced by MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR emerge as the top four RCM runs. We show that an ensemble mean of the top four model runs outperforms an ensemble mean of 24 model simulations and ensemble means for all runs in an RCM. Our analysis of projections shows a reduction (increase) in mean daily precipitation for MAM(OND), an increase(decrease) in CDD(CWD) events, and a general increase in SDII and the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution (99p–90p). An increase in SDII and 99p–90p implies a possibility of occurrence of heavy and extreme precipitation incidences by the end of the twenty-first century. Our findings provide important information to support the region’s climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CORDEX; Global warming; Intraseasonal precipitation variability; RCP 8.5; Regional climate model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; seasonal variation; spatial variation; temporal variation; East Africa
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145394
作者单位	School of Environmental Studies, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya; The African Academy of Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya; Fondazione CMCC Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya; Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ogega O.M.,Koske J.,Kung’u J.B.,et al. Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: results from CORDEX RCMs[J],2020,55.
APA	Ogega O.M.,Koske J.,Kung’u J.B.,Scoccimarro E.,Endris H.S.,&Mistry M.N..(2020).Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: results from CORDEX RCMs.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Ogega O.M.,et al."Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: results from CORDEX RCMs".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).