气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05192-8
	Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model
	Chan S.C.; Kendon E.J.; Berthou S.; Fosser G.; Lewis E.; Fowler H.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	409
结束页码	428
卷号	55
英文摘要	For the first time, we analyze 2.2 km UK Met Office Unified Model convection-permitting model (CPM) projections for a pan-European domain. These new simulations represent a major increase in domain size, allowing us to examine the benefits of CPMs across a range of European climates. We find a change to the seasonality of extreme precipitation with warming. In particular, there is a relatively muted response for summer, which contrasts with much larger increases in autumn and winter. This flattens the hourly extreme precipitation seasonal cycle across Northern Europe which has a summer peak in the present climate. Over the Western Mediterranean, where autumn is the main extreme precipitation season, there is a regional increase in hourly extreme precipitation frequency, but local changes for lower precipitation thresholds are often insignificant. For mean precipitation, decreases are projected across Europe in summer, smaller decreases in autumn, and increases in winter; comparable changes are seen in the driving general circulation model (GCM) simulations. The winter mean increase is accompanied by a large decrease of winter mean snowfall. Comparing the driving GCM projections with the CPM ones, the CPMs show a robust enhanced intensification of precipitation extremes at the convection-permitting scale compared to coarser resolution climate model projections across various European regions for summer and autumn. © 2020, Crown.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric convection; climate modeling; comparative study; extreme event; general circulation model; precipitation (climatology); seasonality; Northern Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145378
作者单位	School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chan S.C.,Kendon E.J.,Berthou S.,et al. Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model[J],2020,55.
APA	Chan S.C.,Kendon E.J.,Berthou S.,Fosser G.,Lewis E.,&Fowler H.J..(2020).Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Chan S.C.,et al."Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).