气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Recent increase in extreme intensity of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05311-5
	Recent increase in extreme intensity of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China
	Liu K.S.; Chan J.C.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1059
结束页码	1074
卷号	55
英文摘要	This study examines the interdecadal variations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in South China (SC) during the period 1975–2018. The annual frequency shows a decrease in 1997 but rises again since 2008 and the annual maximum landfall intensity (MLI) shows an increase since 2012. According to these variations, three subperiods, 1975–1996 (higher frequency but lower MLI), 1997–2011 (lower frequency and MLI) and 2012–2018 (higher frequency and MLI), are defined. The increase in MLI during 2012–2018 is related to the increases in the frequency of (1) TCs undergoing rapid intensification over the South China Sea (SCS) and landfalling in SC, with higher maximum intensity and location of maximum intensity closer to the coast of SC, and (2) intense typhoons (ITYs) over the western North Pacific (WNP), which maintain high intensity before landfall. These changes are closely related to the lower vertical wind shear and higher TC heat potential over the ocean east of the Philippines and the northern part of the SCS. Such an environment is more conducive for TC intensification, leading to the observed increases in the number of rapid-intensifying TCs over the SCS and ITYs over the WNP. Some of these latter TCs move across the SCS and tend to maintain high intensity during landfall in SC. The steering flow also changes, which allows more TCs to enter the SCS, resulting in an increase of ITYs making landfall in SC. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; South China; Tropical cyclone intensity; Tropical cyclone landfall
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; decadal variation; extreme event; frequency analysis; tropical cyclone; wind shear; China; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145375
作者单位	Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Ave., Kowloon, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu K.S.,Chan J.C.L.. Recent increase in extreme intensity of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China[J],2020,55.
APA	Liu K.S.,&Chan J.C.L..(2020).Recent increase in extreme intensity of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Liu K.S.,et al."Recent increase in extreme intensity of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).