气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05308-0
	Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa
	Notaro M.; Wang F.; Yu Y.; Mao J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1031
结束页码	1057
卷号	55
英文摘要	Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, and seasonal climate predictability. In response to this deficiency, the present study focuses on projected responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) the mean state of the atmosphere and land surface; (2) oceanic and terrestrial drivers of sub-Saharan climate variability; and (3) total seasonal climate predictability of sub-Saharan Africa, a region known for its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis focuses on output from 23 Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It is projected that the greatest warming across sub-Saharan Africa will occur over the Sahel, the monsoon season will become more persistent into late summer and autumn, short rains in the Horn of Africa (HOA) will intensify, and leaf area index will increase across the HOA. Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, i.e. a multivariate statistical approach, is applied to the model output over sub-Saharan Africa in order to explore the oceanic and terrestrial drivers of regional climate. The models indicate that the study region’s climate variability is dominated by oceanic drivers, with secondary contributions from soil moisture and very modest impacts from vegetation. Overall, the general model consensus of future projections indicates a concerning diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate based on key oceanic and terrestrial predictors and an elevated role of the land surface (associated with soil moisture anomalies) compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Africa; Climate change; Earth system models; Feedbacks; Land–atmosphere feedbacks
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; extreme event; feedback mechanism; land surface; regional climate; seasonal variation; soil moisture; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145372
作者单位	Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, 300 Forrestal Road, Sayre Hall, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, MS 6301, PO Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6201, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Notaro M.,Wang F.,Yu Y.,et al. Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa[J],2020,55.
APA	Notaro M.,Wang F.,Yu Y.,&Mao J..(2020).Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Notaro M.,et al."Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).