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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3
	Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?
	Dong B.; Sutton R.T.; Shaffrey L.; Wilcox L.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1225
结束页码	1245
卷号	55
英文摘要	In 2012, extreme anomalous climate conditions occurred around the globe. Large areas of North America experienced an anomalously hot summer, with large precipitation deficits inducing severe drought. Over Europe, the summer of 2012 was marked by strong precipitation anomalies with the UK experiencing its wettest summer since 1912 while Spain suffered severe drought. What caused these extreme climate conditions in various regions in 2012? This study compares attribution conclusions for 2012 climate anomalies relative to a baseline period (1964–1981) based on two sets of parallel experiments with different model configurations (with coupling to an ocean mixed layer model or with prescribed sea surface temperatures) to assess whether attribution conclusions concerning the climate anomalies in 2012 are sensitive to the representation of air-sea interaction. Modelling results indicate that attribution conclusions for large scale surface air temperature (SAT) changes in both boreal winter and summer are generally robust and not very sensitive to air-sea interaction. This is especially true over southern Europe, Eurasia, North America, South America, and North Africa. Some other responses also appear to be insensitive to air-sea interaction: for example, forced increases in precipitation over northern Europe and Sahel, and reduced precipitation over North America and the Amazon in boreal summer. However, the attribution of circulation and precipitation changes for some other regions exhibits a sensitivity to air-sea interaction. Results from the experiments including coupling to an ocean mixed layer model show a positive NAO-like circulation response in the Atlantic sector in boreal winter and weak changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and precipitation over East Asia. With prescribed sea surface temperatures, some different responses arise over these two regions. Comparison with observed changes indicates that the coupled simulations generally agree better with observations, demonstrating that attribution methods based on atmospheric general circulation models have limitations and may lead to erroneous attribution conclusions for regional anomalies in circulation, precipitation and surface air temperature. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Air-sea interaction; Anthropogenic forcing; Attribution; Circulation; Climate extreme; Precipitation; Surface warming
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; air-sea interaction; atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; climate conditions; extreme event; precipitation (climatology); Amazonia; North America; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]; Spain; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145369
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong B.,Sutton R.T.,Shaffrey L.,et al. Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?[J],2020,55.
APA	Dong B.,Sutton R.T.,Shaffrey L.,&Wilcox L.J..(2020).Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Dong B.,et al."Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).