气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Natural discharge changes of the Naryn River over the past 265 years and their climatic drivers

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05323-1
	Natural discharge changes of the Naryn River over the past 265 years and their climatic drivers
	Zhang R.; Ermenbaev B.; Zhang H.; Shang H.; Zhang T.; Yu S.; Chontoev D.T.; Satylkanov R.; Qin L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1269
结束页码	1281
卷号	55
英文摘要	Originating in the Tianshan Mountains in arid Central Asia, the natural discharge change of the Naryn River is strongly affected by climate change. As the main source of water for the region, this river is crucial to both the natural environment and the socio-economic development. To extend the discharge record and better understand past and future changes in Naryn River discharge, we developed four tree-ring width chronologies and analyzed the relationship between tree growth and discharge. The resulting reconstruction dates back to 1753 and has an R2 of 0.374 (1939–2017). Interannual discharge variations of the Naryn River indicate that 1917 was the driest year of the past 265 years, while 1956 was the wettest. The record also indicates that the majority of extreme flood years occurred in the past century; prior to about 1900 C.E., the discharge of the Naryn River was relatively stable. Since 1900 C.E., discharge volume has gradually increased, as has discharge variability. At decadal time scales, the 2010s are notable for the frequency of major floods, whereas the 1910s were the driest. Between the 1870s and the 1910s, the Naryn River experienced a period of low discharge that continued for nearly half a century. The discharge of the Naryn River over the past 265 years appears to vary over quasi-periods of 60, 21, 11, and 2-4 years, which are driven by large-scale climate systems. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Central Asia; Climate change; Discharge; Naryn River; Tianshan Mountains; Tree rings
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate change; climate conditions; extreme event; flooding; frequency analysis; river discharge; Naryn River
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145368
作者单位	Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830002, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Tien Shan High Mountain Research Center, Institute of Water Problem and Hydropower of National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, 720033, Kyrgyzstan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang R.,Ermenbaev B.,Zhang H.,et al. Natural discharge changes of the Naryn River over the past 265 years and their climatic drivers[J],2020,55.
APA	Zhang R..,Ermenbaev B..,Zhang H..,Shang H..,Zhang T..,...&Qin L..(2020).Natural discharge changes of the Naryn River over the past 265 years and their climatic drivers.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Zhang R.,et al."Natural discharge changes of the Naryn River over the past 265 years and their climatic drivers".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).