气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2
	Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations
	Tangang F.; Chung J.X.; Juneng L.; Supari; Salimun E.; Ngai S.T.; Jamaluddin A.F.; Mohd M.S.F.; Cruz F.; Narisma G.; Santisirisomboon J.; Ngo-Duc T.; Van Tan P.; Singhruck P.; Gunawan D.; Aldrian E.; Sopaheluwakan A.; Grigory N.; Remedio A.R.C.; Sein D.V.; Hein-Griggs D.; McGregor J.L.; Yang H.; Sasaki H.; Kumar P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1247
结束页码	1267
卷号	55
英文摘要	This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	CORDEX Southeast Asia; Multi-model simulations; Projected rainfall; Regional climate downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; general circulation model; rainfall; seasonality; Southeast Asia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145365
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia; Ramkhamhaeng University Center of Regional Climate Change and Renewable Energy (RU-CORE), Bangkok, Thailand; Institut Oseanografi Dan Sekitaran (INOS), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia; Center for Climate Change Information, Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia; Malaysian Meteorological Department, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia; National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM), Seri Kembangan, Selangor, Malaysia; Regional Climate Systems Laboratory, Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines; Atmospheric Science Program, Physics Department, Ateneo de Manila University, Quezon City, Philippines; REMOSAT Laboratory, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Viet Nam; Department of Meteorology and Climate Change, VNU University o...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tangang F.,Chung J.X.,Juneng L.,等. Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations[J],2020,55.
APA	Tangang F..,Chung J.X..,Juneng L..,Supari.,Salimun E..,...&Kumar P..(2020).Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Tangang F.,et al."Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).