气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05314-2
	How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?
	Hemri S.; Bhend J.; Liniger M.A.; Manzanas R.; Siegert S.; Stephenson D.B.; Gutiérrez J.M.; Brookshaw A.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1141
结束页码	1157
卷号	55
英文摘要	Seasonal forecasts of variables like near-surface temperature or precipitation are becoming increasingly important for a wide range of stakeholders. Due to the many possibilities of recalibrating, combining, and verifying ensemble forecasts, there are ambiguities of which methods are most suitable. To address this we compare approaches how to process and verify multi-model seasonal forecasts based on a scientific assessment performed within the framework of the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Quality Assurance for Multi-model Seasonal Forecast Products (QA4Seas) contract C3S 51 lot 3. Our results underpin the importance of processing raw ensemble forecasts differently depending on the final forecast product needed. While ensemble forecasts benefit a lot from bias correction using climate conserving recalibration, this is not the case for the intrinsically bias adjusted multi-category probability forecasts. The same applies for multi-model combination. In this paper, we apply simple, but effective, approaches for multi-model combination of both forecast formats. Further, based on existing literature we recommend to use proper scoring rules like a sample version of the continuous ranked probability score and the ranked probability score for the verification of ensemble forecasts and multi-category probability forecasts, respectively. For a detailed global visualization of calibration as well as bias and dispersion errors, using the Chi-square decomposition of rank histograms proved to be appropriate for the analysis performed within QA4Seas. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Multi-model combination; Recalibration; Seasonal forecasts
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; correction; numerical model; probability; regional climate; seasonal variation; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145359
作者单位	Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland; Meteorology Group, Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria), Santander, Spain; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys, Barcelona, Spain; Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hemri S.,Bhend J.,Liniger M.A.,et al. How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?[J],2020,55.
APA	Hemri S..,Bhend J..,Liniger M.A..,Manzanas R..,Siegert S..,...&Doblas-Reyes F.J..(2020).How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Hemri S.,et al."How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).