气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05333-z
	Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections
	Avila-Diaz A.; Benezoli V.; Justino F.; Torres R.; Wilson A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1403
结束页码	1426
卷号	55
英文摘要	Brazil experiences extreme weather and climate events that cause numerous economic and social losses, and according to climate change projections, these events will increase in intensity and frequency over this century.This study adds to the body of research on Brazil’s climate change by analyzing the historical patterns and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across Brazil using the World Climate Research Program’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices framework. This novel approach analyzes climate extreme events over the past four decades (1980–2016) using multiple gridded observation and reanalysis datasets. Furthermore, future changes in climate extremes are analyzed from 20 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) at high horizontal resolution (0.25° of latitude/longitude), under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected changes in the extreme indices are analyzed over mid-twenty-first century (2046–2065) and end-of-twenty-first century (2081–2100) relative to the reference period 1986–2005. Results show consistent warming patterns with increasing (decreasing) trends in warm (cold) extremes in the historical datasets. A similar but more intense warm pattern is projected in the mid and end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation indices, observations show an increase in consecutive dry days and a reduction of consecutive wet days over almost all Brazil. The frequency and intensity of extremely wet days over Brazil are expected to increase according to future scenarios. Designing effective adaptation and mitigation measures in response to changes in climate extremes events depends on this improved understanding of how conditions have and are likely to change in the future at regional scales. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate trends; CMIP5 models; Downscaling; ETCCDI; Hydrological basins; Scenarios
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; data set; extreme event; precipitation assessment; trend analysis; warming; Brazil
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145357
作者单位	Department of Agricultural Engineering, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG, Brazil; Natural Resources Institute, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Itajubá, MG, Brazil; Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Avila-Diaz A.,Benezoli V.,Justino F.,et al. Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections[J],2020,55.
APA	Avila-Diaz A.,Benezoli V.,Justino F.,Torres R.,&Wilson A..(2020).Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Avila-Diaz A.,et al."Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).