气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05330-2
	Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years
	Xiao H.; Zhang F.; Miao L.; Liang X.S.; Wu K.; Liu R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1443
结束页码	1456
卷号	55
英文摘要	The rate of warming of the Arctic surface temperature has exceeded that of the global surface temperature in recent decades. However, the underlying process and causes of the long-term warming remain uncertain. In this paper, we explored the factors underlying variation in Arctic mean surface temperature anomalies (AMTA) using a piecewise linear model for 1920–2018. This analysis indicated that the change in AMTA during the study period could be divided into three segments, with AMTA increasing from 1920 to 1938, declining from 1939 to 1976, and finally increasing rapidly after 1977. By a newly developed rigorous formalism of information flow, we found a one-way causality from the driving forces to AMTA. Moreover, the AMTA evolution could mainly be attributed to a combined effect of anthropogenic and natural factors (e.g., CO2, aerosol, and PDO). During the first warming stage (1920–1938), the PDO and aerosols are the main factors determining the change in AMTA. During the second warming stage (1977–2018), greenhouse gases, dominated by CO2, are the major factors accounting for the Arctic warming. In 1939–1976, the observed cooling may be associated with aerosols, clouds, and land use. A better understanding of the driving mechanism underlying AMTA evolution provides insight into the historical Arctic climate change, and can improve the prediction of future changes in AMTA. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Anthropogenic forcing; Arctic surface temperature; Causality; Driving force; Segments
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; carbon dioxide; climate variation; cooling; greenhouse gas; numerical model; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; paleotemperature; surface temperature; temperature anomaly; trend analysis; warming; Arctic
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145351
作者单位	Collaborative Innovation Center On Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China; School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Halle (Saale), 06120, Germany; Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Studies, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiao H.,Zhang F.,Miao L.,et al. Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years[J],2020,55.
APA	Xiao H.,Zhang F.,Miao L.,Liang X.S.,Wu K.,&Liu R..(2020).Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Xiao H.,et al."Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).