气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05327-x
	Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality
	Volpi D.; Batté L.; Guérémy J.-F.; Déqué M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1353
结束页码	1365
卷号	55
英文摘要	In response to the high demand for more skillful climate forecasts at the seasonal timescale, innovative climate prediction systems are developed with improved physics and increased spatial resolution. Alongside the model development process, seasonal predictions need to be evaluated on past years to provide robust information on the forecast performance. This work presents the quality assessment of the Météo-France coupled climate prediction system, taking advantage of an experiment performed with 90 ensemble members over a 37-year re-forecast period from 1979 to 2015. We focus on the boreal winter season initialised in November. Beyond typical skill measures we evaluate the model capability in reproducing ENSO and NAO teleconnections on precipitation and near surface temperature respectively. Such an assessment is carried out first through a composite analysis, and shows that the model succeeds in reproducing the main patterns for near surface temperature and precipitation. A covariance method leads to consistent results. Finally we find that the teleconnection representation of the model is not affected by shortening the verification period and reducing the ensemble size and therefore can be used to evaluate operational seasonal forecast systems. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	ENSO; NAO; Seasonal climate prediction; Teleconnection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; seasonality; spatial resolution; teleconnection
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145349
作者单位	Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Volpi D.,Batté L.,Guérémy J.-F.,et al. Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality[J],2020,55.
APA	Volpi D.,Batté L.,Guérémy J.-F.,&Déqué M..(2020).Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Volpi D.,et al."Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).