气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sub-seasonal prediction of the 2008 extreme snowstorms over South China

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05361-9
	Sub-seasonal prediction of the 2008 extreme snowstorms over South China
	Zheng L.; Zhang Y.; Huang A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1979
结束页码	1994
卷号	55
英文摘要	Extraordinarily frequent and long-lasting snowstorms affected China in January 2008, causing extensive social and economic damages. The potential predictability of such extreme events on the sub-seasonal timescale has been evaluated using results from the hindcast experiments by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model. The spatial distribution of precipitation during the period can be successfully reproduced with a 10–15 days leadtime, although the intensity is weaker than observations. The model’s success lies in the timely prediction of large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, such as the atmospheric blocking over the mid-high latitudes and the southwesterly flow associated with the Bay of Bengal trough in the low latitudes, but the predicted cold air is too strong while the warm air too weak, leading to an underestimation of precipitation along the main rainbelt. Meanwhile, the capture of those circulation anomalies in the initial states and their persistence in subsequent model predictions has played a key role in the predictability of such an extreme event. Detailed analysis has shown that sea surface temperature and low-frequency signals, such as the Arctic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, may also be important during the process. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Extreme events; Snowstorms; Sub-seasonal prediction
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric circulation; climate modeling; extreme event; Madden-Julian oscillation; precipitation intensity; prediction; seasonal variation; snowstorm; temperature effect; westerly; Bay of Bengal; China; Indian Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145331
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Dongying Meteorological Office of Shandong Province, Dongying, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zheng L.,Zhang Y.,Huang A.. Sub-seasonal prediction of the 2008 extreme snowstorms over South China[J],2020,55.
APA	Zheng L.,Zhang Y.,&Huang A..(2020).Sub-seasonal prediction of the 2008 extreme snowstorms over South China.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Zheng L.,et al."Sub-seasonal prediction of the 2008 extreme snowstorms over South China".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).