气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05370-8
	Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations
	Blázquez J.; Silvina A.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2089
结束页码	2106
卷号	55
英文摘要	The precipitation behaviour at different timescales (interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic) and extreme events in a warmer scenario over South America is analysed. This study is based on a set of Regional Climate Models (RCM) from the CORDEX database and their driving Global Climate Models (GCM) from the CMIP5 Project. Historical simulations for 1979–2005 and from the RCP4.5 scenario for 2071–2100 are used. The projected changes in the precipitation behaviour are evaluated in terms of the consistency between the pairs RCM-GCM aiming to explore the added value of RCMs. The agreement between projected changes from RCMs is also evaluated as a measure of confidence of the regional climate change signal. The analysis is carried out for two extended seasons (April to September and October to March). The projected change in the mean precipitation over subtropical latitudes is associated with both changes in the frequency of rainy days and in the intensity of extreme events, while for the tropics the changes are mainly associated with changes in the wet day frequency. The increase of extreme precipitation events over the subtropics arises as a robust signal among models, while for tropical latitudes the dispersion among models is high, which reduces the confidence of the projections. In general, the consistency of the projections in the pairs RCM-GCM and the agreement among models are higher for the low frequency variability patterns during winter, while for summertime a better agreement in the projected changes of the precipitation behaviour at different timescales among RCMs is found. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Future climate; Precipitation; Regional climate modeling; South America
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate signal; database; extreme event; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; South America
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145328
作者单位	Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/FCEN-UBA), Instituto Franco Argentino del Clima y Sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de la Plata, (FCAG/UNLP), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, Buenos Aires, C1428EGA, Argentina; Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEN-UBA), Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/FCEN-UBA), Instituto Franco Argentino del Clima y Sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), Buenos Aires, Argentina
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Blázquez J.,Silvina A.S.. Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations[J],2020,55.
APA	Blázquez J.,&Silvina A.S..(2020).Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Blázquez J.,et al."Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).