气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05378-0
	Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas
	Tinker J.; Palmer M.D.; Copsey D.; Howard T.; Lowe J.A.; Hermans T.H.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2207
结束页码	2236
卷号	55
英文摘要	Variability of Sea-Surface Height (SSH) from ocean dynamic processes is an important component of sea-level change. In this study we dynamically downscale a present-day control simulation of a climate model to replicate sea-level variability in the Northwest European shelf seas. The simulation can reproduce many characteristics of sea-level variability exhibited in tide gauge and satellite altimeter observations. We examine the roles of lateral ocean boundary conditions and surface atmospheric forcings in determining the sea-level variability in the model interior using sensitivity experiments. Variability in the oceanic boundary conditions leads to uniform sea-level variations across the shelf. Atmospheric variability leads to spatial SSH variability with a greater mean amplitude. We separate the SSH variability into a uniform loading term (change in shelf volume with no change in distribution), and a spatial redistribution term (with no volume change). The shelf loading variance accounted for 80% of the shelf mean total variance, but this drops to ~ 60% around Scotland and in the southeast North Sea. We analyse our modelled variability to provide a useful context to coastal planners and managers. Our 200-year simulation allows the distribution of the unforced trends (over 4–21 year) of sea-level changes to be quantified. We found that the 95th percentile change over a 4-year period can lead to coastal sea-level changes of ~ 58 mm, which must be considered when using smooth sea level projections. We also found that simulated coastal SSH variations have long correlation length-scales, suggesting that observations of interannual sea-level variability from tide gauges are typically representative of > 200 km of the adjacent coast. This helps guide the use of tide gauge variability estimates. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Dynamic downscaling; Northwest European shelf seas; Present-day control simulation; Regional sea-level variability; Unforced climate variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; amplitude; downscaling; numerical model; sea level change; sea surface height; sensitivity analysis; Atlantic Ocean; Northwest European Shelf
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145314
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Estuarine & Delta Systems, and Utrecht University, Korringaweg 7, Yerseke, 4401 NT, Netherlands; Department of Geosciences and Remote Sensing, Civil Engineering and Geoscience, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tinker J.,Palmer M.D.,Copsey D.,et al. Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas[J],2020,55.
APA	Tinker J.,Palmer M.D.,Copsey D.,Howard T.,Lowe J.A.,&Hermans T.H.J..(2020).Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Tinker J.,et al."Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).