气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of internal climate variability in projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05354-8
	The role of internal climate variability in projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise
	Tsai C.-Y.; Forest C.E.; Pollard D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1875
结束页码	1892
卷号	55
英文摘要	Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is likely to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to ice-sheet mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR. However, predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and internal climate variability (ICV) that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of ICV on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. Here we quantify the effects of ICV on the AIS evolutions by employing climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice-sheet model. We find that ICV of climate fields among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses, and that most of the effect is due to atmospheric variability compared to oceanic. Our results show that ICV can cause about 0.08 m differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean AIS contribution of 0.38–0.45 m. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate forcing fields as the forcing in an ice-sheet model significantly delays retreat of the West AIS for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07–0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250’s. This study highlights the need to take internal climate variability into account in assessing uncertainty associated with the AIS contribution in sea-level rise projections. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Antarctica; Climate change; Climate model; Climate variability; Ice sheets; Sea level
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; ice sheet; sea level change; uncertainty analysis; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145312
作者单位	Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tsai C.-Y.,Forest C.E.,Pollard D.. The role of internal climate variability in projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise[J],2020,55.
APA	Tsai C.-Y.,Forest C.E.,&Pollard D..(2020).The role of internal climate variability in projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Tsai C.-Y.,et al."The role of internal climate variability in projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).