气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Characteristics; precursors; and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05381-5
	Characteristics; precursors; and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble
	Hoell A.; Eischeid J.; Barlow M.; McNally A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2185
结束页码	2206
卷号	55
英文摘要	The socioeconomic stability of the Central Asian Republics in the Amu Darya watershed is sensitive to drought. Activities related to agriculture employ a large fraction of the population and are responsible for at least one-fifth of the gross domestic products of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Toward building a predictive understanding that may be applied to drought early warning practices, the characteristics, precursors and potential predictability of agricultural drought in the Amu Darya watershed are examined in a large ensemble of Community Earth System Model version 1 simulations during 1920–2019. Agricultural drought is examined over Upper and Lower regions of the Amu Darya watershed, which have different mean hydroclimates, and is defined by 1-m soil moisture deficits lasting three or more months. The likelihood of drought onset and demise is phase-locked with the seasonal cycle of precipitation of each region, but with some notable differences. For the Upper region, drought onset and demise are three times more likely to occur during Autumn and Spring than other seasons. For the Lower region, drought onset and demise are three times more likely to occur during November–April than during Summer. Precipitation anomalies drive drought onset and demise during the climatological wet periods of both regions while temperatures play a smaller role. The probability of drought onset and demise is modulated by La Niña and El Niño, which control the interannual variability of precipitation over the Central Asian Republics during their wet seasons, indicating that the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation serves as a key predictor of agricultural drought phase changes. © 2020, This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate modeling; climate prediction; drought; early warning system; ensemble forecasting; hydrometeorology; Afghanistan; Tajikistan; Turkmenistan
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145310
作者单位	NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hoell A.,Eischeid J.,Barlow M.,et al. Characteristics; precursors; and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble[J],2020,55.
APA	Hoell A.,Eischeid J.,Barlow M.,&McNally A..(2020).Characteristics; precursors; and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Hoell A.,et al."Characteristics; precursors; and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).