气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05394-0
	Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling
	Huang Y.; Franzke C.L.E.; Yuan N.; Fu Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2469
结束页码	2481
卷号	55
英文摘要	Obtaining reliable causal inference is crucial for understanding the climate system. Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a recently developed method to infer causal relationships from time series has been shown to be superior to previous methods which are based on linearity assumptions. However, CCM has so far been only tested on low-dimensional or bivariate models, while real-world systems, like the climate system, are high-dimensional and have many more interacting variables. Here, we demonstrate that standard CCM cannot reliably infer causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems. However, by using a hierarchy of conceptual models and observational data we show that time-lagged CCM reliably identifies causal relationships in contrast to standard CCM and Pearson correlation. Furthermore, we systematically demonstrate that time-lagged CCM is able to identify long-distance causal interactions. Moreover, we apply time-lagged CCM to detect causal relations in stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and demonstrate the downward causal chain induced by polar vortex activity. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Causal inference; Convergent cross mapping; High-dimensional chaotic system; Pearson correlation; Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	convergence; correlation; flow modeling; fluid flow; polar vortex; stratosphere-troposphere interaction; vortex flow
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145293
作者单位	Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China; Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang Y.,Franzke C.L.E.,Yuan N.,et al. Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling[J],2020,55.
APA	Huang Y.,Franzke C.L.E.,Yuan N.,&Fu Z..(2020).Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Huang Y.,et al."Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).