气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Arctic precipitation and surface wind speed associated with cyclones in a changing climate

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05425-w
	Arctic precipitation and surface wind speed associated with cyclones in a changing climate
	Oh S.-G.; Sushama L.; Teufel B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3067
结束页码	3085
卷号	55
英文摘要	This study assesses Arctic cyclone characteristics and associated precipitation and surface wind speeds using an ensemble of regional climate model (GEMCLIM) simulations at 0.5° resolution for the 1981–2099 period following the RCP8.5 scenario. Comparison of GEMCLIM simulation with observations for current climate (1981–2010) suggests that GEMCLIM realistically reproduces the spatial and seasonal variation of Arctic cyclone frequency and intensity, and associated precipitation, for winter and summer. Clear added-value is found for several regions, compared to the driving data. The pressure-wind speed relationships for each region are reasonably reproduced and more extreme winds associated with increasing cyclone intensity are realistically simulated. In addition, the spatial and temporal variations of observed extreme cyclones are well captured. In future climate (2070–2099), the winter cyclone intensity and frequency, and associated precipitation, are projected to increase and decrease over the Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions, respectively. For summer, the projected changes are relatively smaller than those for winter and vary with region. Interestingly, significant decreases in cyclone contribution to total precipitation are found for northern Canada and Eurasia regions, despite increases in cyclone-related precipitation amount. This suggests stronger influence of mesoscale systems on precipitation compared to synoptic-scale systems. Enhanced pressure-wind speed relationships are projected for Arctic Canada and the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. The increase of extreme cyclones during autumn is primarily related to sea ice loss during summer, while for winter, large-scale circulation changes (i.e. Arctic dipole) are mostly responsible due to strong sea ice loss in the central Arctic during autumn. This study demonstrates the added-value of dynamic downscaling with respect to Arctic cyclone characteristics and associated surface variables and provides useful insights regarding their future projections for use in risk assessment studies. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Arctic cyclone; Climate change; Precipitation; Regional climate model; Wind speed
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; cyclone; extreme event; numerical model; precipitation assessment; regional climate; spatiotemporal analysis; surface wind; wind velocity; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Chukchi Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145270
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, Trottier Institute for Sustainability in Engineering and Design, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Oh S.-G.,Sushama L.,Teufel B.. Arctic precipitation and surface wind speed associated with cyclones in a changing climate[J],2020,55.
APA	Oh S.-G.,Sushama L.,&Teufel B..(2020).Arctic precipitation and surface wind speed associated with cyclones in a changing climate.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Oh S.-G.,et al."Arctic precipitation and surface wind speed associated with cyclones in a changing climate".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).