气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7
	Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario
	Ju W.-S.; Long S.-M.; Xie S.-P.; Wang G.; Du Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3117
结束页码	3131
卷号	55
英文摘要	Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric CO2 concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Low warming scenario; North Pacific subtropical gyre; Uncertainty; Wind
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; gyre; subtropical convergence; uncertainty analysis; warming; wind; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145269
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 164 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, 510301, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou, China; College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, United States; Institute of Atmospheric Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ju W.-S.,Long S.-M.,Xie S.-P.,et al. Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario[J],2020,55.
APA	Ju W.-S.,Long S.-M.,Xie S.-P.,Wang G.,&Du Y..(2020).Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Ju W.-S.,et al."Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).