气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5
	Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models
	Hsieh T.-L.; Vecchi G.A.; Yang W.; Held I.M.; Garner S.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3177
结束页码	3196
卷号	55
英文摘要	A diagnostic framework is developed to explain the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate in high-resolution global atmospheric models having different complexity of boundary conditions. The framework uses vortex dynamics to identify the large-scale control on the evolution of TC precursors—first non-rotating convective clusters and then weakly rotating seeds. In experiments with perturbed sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration from the historical values, the response of TCs follows the response of seeds. The distribution of seeds is explained by the distribution of the non-rotating convective clusters multiplied by a probability that they transition to seeds. The distribution of convective clusters is constrained by the large-scale vertical velocity and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with shifting Inter tropical Convergence Zones. The probability of transition to seeds is constrained by the large-scale vorticity via an analytical function, representing the relative importance between vortex stretching and vorticity advection, and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with uniform SST. The consistency between seed and TC responses breaks down substantially when the realistic SST is perturbed such that the spatial gradient is significantly enhanced or reduced. In such cases, the difference between the responses is explained by a change in the ventilation index, which influences the fraction of seeds that develop into TCs. The proposed TC-climate relationship serves as a framework to explain the diversity of TC projection across models and forcing scenarios. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric modeling; boundary condition; carbon dioxide; complexity; convective system; hierarchical system; intertropical convergence zone; sea surface temperature; tropical cyclone; vortex flow
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145246
作者单位	Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hsieh T.-L.,Vecchi G.A.,Yang W.,et al. Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models[J],2020,55.
APA	Hsieh T.-L.,Vecchi G.A.,Yang W.,Held I.M.,&Garner S.T..(2020).Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Hsieh T.-L.,et al."Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).