气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05456-3
	Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections
	Garrido J.L.; González-Rouco J.F.; Vivanco M.G.; Navarro J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3445
结束页码	3468
卷号	55
英文摘要	The realism of a specific configuration of the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) to represent the observed temperature evolution over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in the 1971–2005 period has been analyzed. The E-OBS observational dataset was used for this purpose. Also, the added value of the WRF simulations with respect to the IPSL Earth System Model (ESM) used to drive the WRF RCM was evaluated. In general, WRF presents lower temperatures than in the observations (negative biases) over the IP. These biases are comparatively larger than those of the driving ESM. Once the biases are corrected, WRF provides an added value in terms of a higher spatial representation. WRF introduces more variability in some regions in comparison to gridded observation. Warming trends according to the observations are also well represented by the RCM. In the second part of this study, the projections of future climate performed with both the ESM and the RCM were evaluated for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the 21st century. Although both models simulate temperature increases, the RCM simulates a smaller warming than the ESM after the mid-21st century, except for winter. Using the WRF model, the maximum temperature increase reaches 6∘C and 3∘C for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the south east of the Iberian Peninsula by the end of the 21st century, respectively. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate projections; Iberian Peninsula; Regional climate models; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; computer simulation; regional climate; surface temperature; warming; weather forecasting; Iberian Peninsula
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145242
作者单位	Research Center for Energy, Environment and Technology, CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, Edificio 70, Madrid, Spain; Dpto. Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM-CSIC), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Garrido J.L.,González-Rouco J.F.,Vivanco M.G.,et al. Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections[J],2020,55.
APA	Garrido J.L.,González-Rouco J.F.,Vivanco M.G.,&Navarro J..(2020).Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections.Climate Dynamics,55.
MLA	Garrido J.L.,et al."Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections".Climate Dynamics 55(2020).