气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834
	The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018
	Lee D.S.; Fahey D.W.; Skowron A.; Allen M.R.; Burkhardt U.; Chen Q.; Doherty S.J.; Freeman S.; Forster P.M.; Fuglestvedt J.; Gettelman A.; De León R.R.; Lim L.L.; Lund M.T.; Millar R.J.; Owen B.; Penner J.E.; Pitari G.; Prather M.J.; Sausen R.; Wilcox L.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	13522310
英文摘要	Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960–2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr−1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr−1. Over the period 2013–2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000–2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m−2 (5–95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m−2), CO2 (34.3 mW m−2), and NOx (17.5 mW m−2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m−2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Aviation; Climate; CO2; Contrail cirrus; NOx; Radiative forcing
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric radiation; Carbon dioxide process; Clouds; Global warming; Nitrogen oxides; Soot; Sulfur compounds; Aerosol-cloud interaction; Anthropogenic climate; Anthropogenic climate changes; Climate change impact; Global warming potential; Quantitative approach; Revenue passenger-kilometers; Uncertainty distributions; Carbon dioxide
来源期刊	Atmospheric Environment
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145201
作者单位	Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom; NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, United States; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; CICERO—Center for International Climate Research—Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, Oslo, 0318, Norway; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee D.S.,Fahey D.W.,Skowron A.,et al. The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018[J],2020.
APA	Lee D.S..,Fahey D.W..,Skowron A..,Allen M.R..,Burkhardt U..,...&Wilcox L.J..(2020).The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018.Atmospheric Environment.
MLA	Lee D.S.,et al."The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018".Atmospheric Environment (2020).